Scenario: You are a business owner faced with an important decision that could potentially be very lucrative. Keep in mind the Six Steps in Decision Making as you set-up your decision analysis.

1.  What is the problem and objective of this decision?

2.  Identify at least 3 alternatives and 3 states of nature.

3.  Create a decision table in Excel.

4.  Identify the potential payoff/losses for each alternative and state of nature and include in your decision table.

5.  Choose two decision strategies and determine the best alternative: (Clearly state the best alternative for each strategy.)

Optimistic
Pessimistic
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
6.  Why did you choose the two strategies? What are the results of the best alternative? What is your final decision?

After you have contemplated the questions above, draft your reflective essay. Every piece of writing should have an introduction, body, and conclusion. A good way to plan this particular reflective essay is to write an introduction to the essay. Next, write at least three body paragraphs and address each of the points listed above. End your essay with a conclusion paragraph tying all of your ideas together. The essay should be at least five paragraphs in length.